Quantitative risk management in project management is the process of converting the impact of risk on the project into numerical terms. This numerical information is frequently used to determine the cost and time contingencies of the project. Quantitative risk analysis is a numeric estimate of the overall effect of risk on the project objectives such as cost and schedule objectives. The results provide insight into the likelihood of project success and is used to develop contingency reserves. The industry-standard formula for quantitative risk analysis is: (ALE = SLE × ARO). That is, Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) = Single Loss Exposure (SLE) × Annualized Rate of Occurrence (ARO). SLE is calculated as asset value x exposure factor. There are four classes of quantitative sensitivity analysis tools. These are scenarios, mathematical, statistical and graphical analysis. Quantitative Risk Analysis is proven as a valuable management tool in assessing the overall safety performance of a Chemical Process Industry. Risk Analysis techniques provide advanced quantitative means to supplement other hazard identification, analysis, assessment, control and management methods to identify the potential for such incidents and to evaluate control strategies.
Quantitave Risk Analysis Tools
The simplest form of quantitative risk analysis when you all need is an expected cost of a risk and the probability of that risk occurring.
A Monte Carlo analysis creates a range of potential outcomes risks related to project duration or yield often assign the highest probability to the expected outcome.
Sensitivity assessment allows to examine uncertainty within a risk analysis and determine which elements are most responsible for uncertainty.
Three-point analysis is a method of determining the expected cost of a risk on a project which determine the most likely cost of a risk.
Quantitative Risk Analysis Process
Identify areas for uncertainty.
Assess the costs of each risk.
Determine the probability of each risk occurring.
Calculate the expected cost of each potential risk.